{
 "schema": "causari.survival_report.v1",
 "title": "Survival Report #3",
 "number": 3,
 "id": "2026/03",
 "date": "2026-09-28",
 "generated_at": "2026-09-28T11:42:25Z",
 "url": "https://causari.dev/reports/survival/2026/03/",
 "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "publisher": "Crovia Trust",
 "tool": {
  "name": "causari",
  "version": "0.3.0"
 },
 "method": {
  "version": "v3",
  "url": "https://causari.dev/method",
  "command": "re audit <owner/repo> --json",
  "blame_flags": [
   "-w",
   "-M",
   "-C"
  ],
  "sample_floor": 5,
  "cap_rule": "a commit weighs at most the 95th percentile of per-commit introduced line counts in its repository, and never more than 10,000 lines",
  "evidence_class": "VERIFIED only; PROBABLE is listed but never summed",
  "aggregation": "repositories with at least sample_floor VERIFIED commits and a full (non-shallow) clone",
  "selection": "the repositories were selected, not drawn at random: 30 hand-picked and 16 found by GitHub commit search as public repositories with at least 5 commits carrying the same AI authorship metadata and at least 100 stars, most-starred first (discovered 2026-09-27); the selection rule and the counts behind it are public."
 },
 "aggregate": {
  "repositories": 43,
  "total_commits": 575311,
  "ai_tagged_commits": 39706,
  "introduced": 21286167,
  "surviving": 13068031,
  "survival_rate": 0.6139212851238084,
  "survival_rate_interval_95": {
   "low": 0.40637876855219224,
   "high": 0.764678443245241
  },
  "median_capped_survival_rate": 0.7392773473987707,
  "median_capped_survival_rate_interval_95": {
   "low": 0.6761068300849961,
   "high": 0.7623424993721652
  },
  "interval_method": {
   "kind": "bootstrap over repositories",
   "resamples": 2000,
   "seed": 3,
   "note": "95 % percentile interval from 2000 bootstrap resamples of the 43 aggregated repositories (with replacement, seed 3). It describes the sampled repositories, not all AI-assisted code, and not the repositories not in this sample."
  },
  "baseline": {
   "repositories": 43,
   "repositories_with_gap": 42,
   "median_gap": 0.045522588193762814,
   "median_gap_interval_95": {
    "low": -0.009277366582757823,
    "high": 0.06951429264059023
   },
   "gaps_negative": 18,
   "gaps_positive": 24,
   "rewritten": [
    "OpenHands/OpenHands"
   ],
   "rewritten_rule": "more than 50% of the repository's commits predate the oldest line still at HEAD",
   "pooled_by_age": [
    {
     "from_days": 0,
     "to_days": 30,
     "tagged": {
      "commits": 6256,
      "introduced": 3906783,
      "surviving": 3229939,
      "survival_rate": 0.8267515754010397
     },
     "untagged": {
      "commits": 15776,
      "introduced": 8699442,
      "surviving": 7218325,
      "survival_rate": 0.8297457469111237
     }
    },
    {
     "from_days": 30,
     "to_days": 90,
     "tagged": {
      "commits": 5911,
      "introduced": 3909985,
      "surviving": 2897480,
      "survival_rate": 0.7410463211495696
     },
     "untagged": {
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      "introduced": 15454516,
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      "survival_rate": 0.7714171055243658
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    {
     "from_days": 90,
     "to_days": 180,
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      "survival_rate": 0.45552164966994746
     },
     "untagged": {
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    },
    {
     "from_days": 180,
     "to_days": 365,
     "tagged": {
      "commits": 6545,
      "introduced": 3707005,
      "surviving": 2544042,
      "survival_rate": 0.6862796246565623
     },
     "untagged": {
      "commits": 67322,
      "introduced": 17490150,
      "surviving": 8908668,
      "survival_rate": 0.5093534360768776
     }
    },
    {
     "from_days": 365,
     "to_days": 730,
     "tagged": {
      "commits": 9652,
      "introduced": 885129,
      "surviving": 351427,
      "survival_rate": 0.39703478250062985
     },
     "untagged": {
      "commits": 91157,
      "introduced": 14685995,
      "surviving": 6029789,
      "survival_rate": 0.4105808969702087
     }
    },
    {
     "from_days": 730,
     "to_days": null,
     "tagged": {
      "commits": 3088,
      "introduced": 69879,
      "surviving": 33188,
      "survival_rate": 0.47493524520957653
     },
     "untagged": {
      "commits": 297898,
      "introduced": 53147979,
      "surviving": 11974767,
      "survival_rate": 0.22530992194453903
     }
    }
   ],
   "pooled_by_age_note": "counts summed across the repositories with a baseline, one row per age window; one large repository can dominate a window, so no gap is computed from these rows: the gap is computed inside each repository and only its median crosses repositories",
   "definition": "gap = AI-tagged line-weighted survival minus untagged survival re-weighted to the age mix of the AI-tagged lines of the same repository, over age windows where both cohorts hold at least 5 commits, computed inside each repository; untagged = commits with no machine-readable AI signal (human-written, inline-completed and untagged-agent code alike); age = commit date to HEAD date. A negative gap means AI-tagged lines survive less than untagged lines of the same age in the same repository."
  }
 },
 "by_agent": {
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  "aider": {
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  "claude-code": {
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   "introduced": 7616756,
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  "cursor": {
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  "gemini": {
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  "github-copilot": {
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   "introduced": 5650529,
   "surviving": 4247013,
   "survival_rate": 0.7516133445204864
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  "grok": {
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   "survival_rate": 0.7815080870383369
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   "survival_rate": 0.597623089983022
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   "introduced": 100575,
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   "survival_rate": 0.7498682575192642
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  "openai-codex": {
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   "introduced": 359328,
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   "survival_rate": 0.7452188529699885
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  "opencode": {
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   "survival_rate": 0.8911884603323926
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   "introduced": 1308550,
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   "survival_rate": 0.45105651293416377
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 },
 "repositories": [
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   "repo": "Aider-AI/aider",
   "url": "https://github.com/Aider-AI/aider",
   "audit_file": "repos/Aider-AI__aider.json",
   "reproduce": "re audit Aider-AI/aider --json",
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   "audit_file": "repos/anthropics__anthropic-sdk-python.json",
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