{ "schema": "causari.survival_report.v1", "title": "Survival Report #4", "number": 4, "id": "2026/04", "date": "2026-10-05", "generated_at": "2026-10-05T12:17:49Z", "url": "https://causari.dev/reports/survival/2026/04/", "license": "CC-BY-4.0", "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "publisher": "Crovia Trust", "tool": { "name": "causari", "version": "0.3.0" }, "method": { "version": "v3", "url": "https://causari.dev/method", "command": "re audit --json", "blame_flags": [ "-w", "-M", "-C" ], "sample_floor": 5, "cap_rule": "a commit weighs at most the 95th percentile of per-commit introduced line counts in its repository, and never more than 10,000 lines", "evidence_class": "VERIFIED only; PROBABLE is listed but never summed", "aggregation": "repositories with at least sample_floor VERIFIED commits and a full (non-shallow) clone", "selection": "the repositories were selected, not drawn at random: 30 hand-picked and 34 found by GitHub commit search as public repositories with at least 5 commits carrying the same AI authorship metadata and at least 100 stars, most-starred first (discovered 2026-09-27); the selection rule and the counts behind it are public." }, "aggregate": { "repositories": 59, "total_commits": 907458, "ai_tagged_commits": 68274, "introduced": 32730982, "surviving": 17512878, "survival_rate": 0.5350550741190716, "survival_rate_interval_95": { "low": 0.37417535896663284, "high": 0.756479726918573 }, "median_capped_survival_rate": 0.7516781812688642, "median_capped_survival_rate_interval_95": { "low": 0.6900213902771558, "high": 0.7666940465821371 }, "interval_method": { "kind": "bootstrap over repositories", "resamples": 2000, "seed": 4, "note": "95 % percentile interval from 2000 bootstrap resamples of the 59 aggregated repositories (with replacement, seed 4). It describes the sampled repositories, not all AI-assisted code, and not the repositories not in this sample." }, "baseline": { "repositories": 59, "repositories_with_gap": 58, "median_gap": 0.03651766867568729, "median_gap_interval_95": { "low": -0.003915612064094187, "high": 0.06934139712859821 }, "gaps_negative": 23, "gaps_positive": 35, "rewritten": [ "OpenHands/OpenHands" ], "rewritten_rule": "more than 50% of the repository's commits predate the oldest line still at HEAD", "pooled_by_age": [ { "from_days": 0, "to_days": 30, "tagged": { "commits": 14175, "introduced": 5907452, "surviving": 4551595, "survival_rate": 0.7704836196722377 }, "untagged": { "commits": 21120, "introduced": 11269058, "surviving": 9215649, "survival_rate": 0.8177834385092347 } }, { "from_days": 30, "to_days": 90, "tagged": { "commits": 11883, "introduced": 9003398, "surviving": 3735895, "survival_rate": 0.4149427804924319 }, "untagged": { "commits": 36894, "introduced": 27199771, "surviving": 14689006, "survival_rate": 0.5400415319673095 } }, { "from_days": 90, "to_days": 180, "tagged": { "commits": 15441, "introduced": 9874364, "surviving": 4368766, "survival_rate": 0.4424351786099844 }, "untagged": { "commits": 48473, "introduced": 46476726, "surviving": 38945166, "survival_rate": 0.8379498590326694 } }, { "from_days": 180, "to_days": 365, "tagged": { "commits": 13391, "introduced": 5863795, "surviving": 3490477, "survival_rate": 0.5952590429917827 }, "untagged": { "commits": 91874, "introduced": 22514641, "surviving": 11769773, "survival_rate": 0.522760855924818 } }, { "from_days": 365, "to_days": 730, "tagged": { "commits": 10293, "introduced": 2011955, "surviving": 1332958, "survival_rate": 0.6625187939094065 }, "untagged": { "commits": 131840, "introduced": 20738652, "surviving": 9942489, "survival_rate": 0.4794182862029798 } }, { "from_days": 730, "to_days": null, "tagged": { "commits": 3091, "introduced": 70018, "surviving": 33187, "survival_rate": 0.4739781199120226 }, "untagged": { "commits": 508891, "introduced": 83641899, "surviving": 19236089, "survival_rate": 0.22998149527905865 } } ], "pooled_by_age_note": "counts summed across the repositories with a baseline, one row per age window; one large repository can dominate a window, so no gap is computed from these rows: the gap is computed inside each repository and only its median crosses repositories", "definition": "gap = AI-tagged line-weighted survival minus untagged survival re-weighted to the age mix of the AI-tagged lines of the same repository, over age windows where both cohorts hold at least 5 commits, computed inside each repository; untagged = commits with no machine-readable AI signal (human-written, inline-completed and untagged-agent code alike); age = commit date to HEAD date. A negative gap means AI-tagged lines survive less than untagged lines of the same age in the same repository." } }, "by_agent": { "ai": { "repositories": 4, "commits": 61, "introduced": 8301, "surviving": 7047, "survival_rate": 0.848933863389953 }, "aider": { "repositories": 4, "commits": 11167, "introduced": 375563, "surviving": 235811, "survival_rate": 0.6278866661518839 }, "claude-code": { "repositories": 51, "commits": 23230, "introduced": 16363698, "surviving": 8271489, "survival_rate": 0.5054779793662777 }, "copilot": { "repositories": 4, "commits": 4006, "introduced": 252865, "surviving": 148908, "survival_rate": 0.5888833962786467 }, "cursor": { "repositories": 37, "commits": 1297, "introduced": 4355982, "surviving": 814410, "survival_rate": 0.18696358249414255 }, "devin": { "repositories": 14, "commits": 8187, "introduced": 2727811, "surviving": 2059964, "survival_rate": 0.7551710877329845 }, "gemini": { "repositories": 14, "commits": 1559, "introduced": 476688, "surviving": 292368, "survival_rate": 0.6133319907360789 }, "github-copilot": { "repositories": 39, "commits": 11100, "introduced": 5520294, "surviving": 4194675, "survival_rate": 0.7598644202645729 }, "grok": { "repositories": 1, "commits": 181, "introduced": 221302, "surviving": 172880, "survival_rate": 0.7811949281976666 }, "jules": { "repositories": 8, "commits": 38, "introduced": 3534, "surviving": 2070, "survival_rate": 0.5857385398981324 }, "llm": { "repositories": 1, "commits": 740, "introduced": 145514, "surviving": 113512, "survival_rate": 0.7800761438761906 }, "openai-codex": { "repositories": 22, "commits": 2177, "introduced": 848705, "surviving": 510930, "survival_rate": 0.6020112995681656 }, "opencode": { "repositories": 2, "commits": 6, "introduced": 3249, "surviving": 2880, "survival_rate": 0.8864265927977839 }, "openhands": { "repositories": 5, "commits": 4493, "introduced": 1425137, "surviving": 683871, "survival_rate": 0.47986333945438225 }, "pi": { "repositories": 2, "commits": 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false, "shallow": false, "sample_floor": 5, "small_sample": true }, "aggregated": false } ], "excluded": { "shallow": [], "not_method_v2": [], "failed": [ "fern-api/fern", "llvm/llvm-project", "richlander/dotnet-inspect" ], "duplicates": [], "opted_out": 0, "optout_file": "https://github.com/croviatrust/causari/blob/main/.github/survival-optout.txt" }, "reach": { "profile": "crovia.pnx.v1", "record": "crovia.pnx.reach.v1", "sheet": "reach.sheet.json", "run_id": "survival-report-gh-37308519983", "closed_at": "2026-10-06T19:06:45Z", "witness": { "id": "urn:causari:survival-report:witness:run-37308519983", "key_hex": "fa9706f88f16d4943293a0be7a66c0a0908cb228dee0572587d4f58125f2a73c" }, "capture": "proxy-connect", "disclosure": "clear", "policy": { "kind": "allowlist", "mode": "enforce", "hash": "sha256:7a501cbe66356070f9c6c6a5372a8dd425be059bb2315a71bffcccff64692e21", "rules": 1, "file": "egress-policy.json", "source": "https://github.com/croviatrust/causari/blob/main/.github/egress-policy.json" }, "summary": { "destinations": 1, "connections": 128, "allowed": 1, "blocked": 0, "failed": 0 }, "destinations": [ { "host": "github.com", "port": 443, "outcome": "allowed", "connections": 128, "bytes_out": 515039, "bytes_in": 30149527997, "first_at": "2026-10-05T12:17:49Z", "last_at": "2026-10-05T15:21:12Z" } ], "verdict": "within-policy", "outside": [], "warnings": [], "logs": { "uploaded": 20, "shards": 20 }, "covers": "the connection attempts in the shard logs that were uploaded and concatenated into this sheet", "not_covered": "any shard that uploaded no log; what the runner does outside the measurement step (checking out this repository, installing the tool, uploading the shard); and any connection that did not go through the witness", "verify": [ "tacet-pnx verify reach.sheet.json --policy egress-policy.json", "re pnx verify reach.sheet.json --policy egress-policy.json" ] }, "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23196011", "concept_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.22863965", "zenodo": { "record_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23196011", "record_id": 23196011, "version": "#4", "sandbox": false, "published_at": "2026-10-06T19:08:58Z" } }