{
 "schema": "causari.survival_report.v1",
 "title": "Survival Report #6",
 "number": 6,
 "id": "2026/06",
 "date": "2026-10-19",
 "generated_at": "2026-10-19T10:47:21Z",
 "url": "https://causari.dev/reports/survival/2026/06/",
 "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "publisher": "Crovia Trust",
 "tool": {
  "name": "causari",
  "version": "0.4.1"
 },
 "method": {
  "version": "v4",
  "url": "https://causari.dev/method",
  "command": "re audit <owner/repo> --json",
  "blame_flags": [
   "-w",
   "-M",
   "-C"
  ],
  "sample_floor": 5,
  "cap_rule": "a commit weighs at most the 95th percentile of per-commit introduced line counts in its repository, and never more than 10,000 lines",
  "evidence_class": "VERIFIED only; PROBABLE is listed but never summed",
  "aggregation": "repositories with at least sample_floor VERIFIED commits and a full (non-shallow) clone",
  "selection": "the repositories were selected, not drawn at random: 30 hand-picked and 34 found by GitHub commit search as public repositories with at least 5 commits carrying the same AI authorship metadata and at least 100 stars, most-starred first (discovered 2026-09-27); the selection rule and the counts behind it are public. The latest discovery run did not finish, and this list was not replaced."
 },
 "aggregate": {
  "repositories": 59,
  "total_commits": 929380,
  "ai_tagged_commits": 76205,
  "introduced": 36935340,
  "surviving": 20346193,
  "survival_rate": 0.5508597727812984,
  "survival_rate_interval_95": {
   "low": 0.4042357653379225,
   "high": 0.752344876206295
  },
  "median_capped_survival_rate": 0.7561758472757145,
  "median_capped_survival_rate_interval_95": {
   "low": 0.6977671814873518,
   "high": 0.7677403791286597
  },
  "interval_method": {
   "kind": "bootstrap over repositories",
   "resamples": 2000,
   "seed": 6,
   "note": "95 % percentile interval from 2000 bootstrap resamples of the 59 aggregated repositories (with replacement, seed 6). It describes the sampled repositories, not all AI-assisted code, and not the repositories not in this sample."
  },
  "baseline": {
   "repositories": 59,
   "repositories_with_gap": 58,
   "median_gap": 0.0429709377581311,
   "median_gap_interval_95": {
    "low": -0.0008916576918758523,
    "high": 0.0699158785451427
   },
   "gaps_negative": 22,
   "gaps_positive": 36,
   "rewritten": [
    "OpenHands/OpenHands"
   ],
   "rewritten_rule": "more than 50% of the repository's commits predate the oldest line still at HEAD",
   "pooled_by_age": [
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     "from_days": 0,
     "to_days": 30,
     "tagged": {
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      "introduced": 8130839,
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      "survival_rate": 0.7655315767536413
     },
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      "surviving": 10767787,
      "survival_rate": 0.8135927532597433
     }
    },
    {
     "from_days": 30,
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     "tagged": {
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      "introduced": 9862532,
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    {
     "from_days": 90,
     "to_days": 180,
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    {
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     "tagged": {
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     },
     "untagged": {
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    },
    {
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     "tagged": {
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      "introduced": 2132024,
      "surviving": 1407942,
      "survival_rate": 0.6603781195708867
     },
     "untagged": {
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      "introduced": 21086274,
      "surviving": 9976387,
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    },
    {
     "from_days": 730,
     "to_days": null,
     "tagged": {
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      "survival_rate": 0.4719756024568554
     },
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   ],
   "pooled_by_age_note": "counts summed across the repositories with a baseline, one row per age window; one large repository can dominate a window, so no gap is computed from these rows: the gap is computed inside each repository and only its median crosses repositories",
   "definition": "gap = AI-tagged line-weighted survival minus untagged survival re-weighted to the age mix of the AI-tagged lines of the same repository, over age windows where both cohorts hold at least 5 commits, computed inside each repository; untagged = commits with no machine-readable AI signal (human-written, inline-completed and untagged-agent code alike); age = commit date to HEAD date. A negative gap means AI-tagged lines survive less than untagged lines in the matched age windows of the same repository."
  }
 },
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   "url": "https://github.com/Aider-AI/aider",
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   "by_agent": {},
   "baseline": {
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    ],
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    "oldest_surviving": {
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     "tagged_commits_before": 0,
     "tagged_introduced_before": 0,
     "commits_before_share": 0.0
    }
   },
   "coverage": {
    "method": "v4",
    "blame_flags": [
     "-w",
     "-M",
     "-C"
    ],
    "ignore_revs_file": false,
    "shallow": false,
    "sample_floor": 5,
    "small_sample": true
   },
   "aggregated": false
  }
 ],
 "excluded": {
  "shallow": [],
  "not_method_v2": [],
  "failed": [
   "fern-api/fern",
   "llvm/llvm-project",
   "richlander/dotnet-inspect"
  ],
  "duplicates": [],
  "opted_out": 0,
  "optout_file": "https://github.com/croviatrust/causari/blob/main/.github/survival-optout.txt"
 },
 "reach": {
  "profile": "crovia.pnx.v1",
  "record": "crovia.pnx.reach.v1",
  "sheet": "reach.sheet.json",
  "run_id": "survival-report-gh-39239923906",
  "closed_at": "2026-10-19T14:45:53Z",
  "witness": {
   "id": "urn:causari:survival-report:witness",
   "key_hex": "8213f0683a1fa966dfa2b045e44a78683da5725cd307f71f9d19650e3b5760c6"
  },
  "capture": "proxy-connect",
  "disclosure": "clear",
  "policy": {
   "kind": "allowlist",
   "mode": "enforce",
   "hash": "sha256:7a501cbe66356070f9c6c6a5372a8dd425be059bb2315a71bffcccff64692e21",
   "rules": 1,
   "file": "egress-policy.json",
   "source": "https://github.com/croviatrust/causari/blob/main/.github/egress-policy.json"
  },
  "summary": {
   "destinations": 1,
   "connections": 128,
   "allowed": 1,
   "blocked": 0,
   "failed": 0
  },
  "destinations": [
   {
    "host": "github.com",
    "port": 443,
    "outcome": "allowed",
    "connections": 128,
    "bytes_out": 524815,
    "bytes_in": 30908210581,
    "first_at": "2026-10-19T10:47:21Z",
    "last_at": "2026-10-19T13:52:17Z"
   }
  ],
  "verdict": "within-policy",
  "outside": [],
  "warnings": [],
  "logs": {
   "uploaded": 20,
   "shards": 20
  },
  "covers": "the connection attempts in the shard logs that were uploaded and concatenated into this sheet",
  "not_covered": "any shard that uploaded no log; what the runner does outside the measurement step (checking out this repository, installing the tool, uploading the shard); and any connection that did not go through the witness",
  "verify": [
   "tacet-pnx verify reach.sheet.json --policy egress-policy.json",
   "re pnx verify reach.sheet.json --policy egress-policy.json"
  ]
 },
 "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23477646",
 "concept_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.22863965",
 "zenodo": {
  "record_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23477646",
  "record_id": 23477646,
  "version": "#6",
  "sandbox": false,
  "published_at": "2026-10-19T14:47:41Z"
 }
}